Hydrological Modelling and Its Implication in Sustainable Water Resource Management in Gumti River Basin in Bangladesh

1. Flood and River Basin Management Division, Institute of Water Modeling, Dhaka-1230, Bangladesh
2. Department of Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States
3. Department of Civil Engineering, Military Institute of Science and Technology, Dhaka-1216, Bangladesh
Email: maieshanujhat@gmail.com (M.N.); mrayhan1@asu.edu (M.R.); aminkhr21@gmail.com (M.K.A.)
*Corresponding author
Manuscript received August 29, 2024; accepted December 3, 2024; published December 4, 2024.

Abstract—Sustainable water resource management in Bangladesh’s Gumti River Basin faces challenges from climate change, ur-banization, and population growth. This study aimed to cali-brate and validate the Hydrologic Engineering Cen-ter—Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model for the Gumti River to enhance flood prediction and water resource planning. The model was set up using precipitation, tempera-ture, and discharge data from 2019–2021, with SRTM elevation data for catchment delineation. Manual calibration was per-formed for 2019–2020, followed by validation for 2021, using parameters such as Muskingum routing and SCS Curve Number. Model performance was evaluated using R², Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), root mean square er-ror-standard deviation ratio (RSR), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) metrics. The calibration and validation R² values were 0.64 and 0.68, respectively, indicating satisfactory to good performance. NSE values were within the satisfactory range, while PBIAS indicated very good performance with slight underestimation. The study concludes that the calibrated HEC-HMS model pro-vides a reliable tool for simulating the Gumti River’s hydrology, though there’s room for improvement. Integration with flood frequency analysis, water quality monitoring, and climate change projections is recommended for comprehensive water resource management, alongside the implementation of Sus-tainable Water Resource Management principles and commu-nity engagement strategies.

Keywords—Gumti river, HEC-HMS, hydrological modeling, calibration, parameters, management practices

Cite: Maiesha Nujhat, Md. Rayhan, and Md. Khairul Amin, "Hydrological Modelling and Its Implication in Sustainable Water Resource Management in Gumti River Basin in Bangladesh," International Journal of Sustainability in Energy and Environment, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 40-48, 2024.

Copyright © 2024 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).